The Washington Post recently published a story that summarizes things pretty well:
One year out from the 2012 election, President Obama faces the most difficult reelection environment of any White House incumbent in two decades, with economic woes at the center of the public’’s concerns, an electorate that is deeply pessimistic and sharply polarized, and growing questions about the president’’s capacity to lead.
Those factors alone portend the possibility that Obama could become the first one-term president since George H.W. Bush, who was defeated by Bill Clinton in 1992 at a time of economic problems and similar anger with the political establishment in Washington. To win a second term, Obama probably will have to overcome the highest rate of unemployment in an election year of any president in the post-World War II era.
Among some of the findings in the accompanying Washington Post-ABC News poll are these:
* Obama is the only incumbent since Jimmy Carter whose approval rating, at this stage in his first term, is below 50 percent and whose disapproval rating is above 50 percent. For Obama, the split is 44/53. For George W. Bush at this juncture, it was 57/39; for Bill Clinton, 54/41; for George H.W. Bush, 59/38; and for Ronald Reagan, 57/40.
* The most important issue in the public’s choice for president is the economy/jobs, with 56 percent identifying those two categories. All other issues were mentioned by 7 percent or less.
* Eighty-six percent of those polled said that since Obama became president, financially they are about the same or not as well off. Only 13 percent said they are better off.
* Less than half of those polled (48 percent) said Obama is a strong leader and that he understands problems of people like you (49 percent).
* The wrong track number is 74 percent.
None of this data is surprising; it merely underscores the fact that if Obama wins re-election, he will have to overcome circumstances that are more difficult than any president has faced since the middle part of the last century.
